Odds on five wars. Every number sourced, every call on the record.

The Conflict Ledger gives a daily probability for checkable questions about five conflicts: the US and Israeli war with Iran, Russia and Ukraine, Israel with Gaza and Lebanon, the Taiwan Strait, and Sudan. Every number links to the reporting behind it, sits beside the betting markets where they price the same question, and is scored when the question resolves.

The Conflict Ledger home page: live prices for Brent, WTI, natural gas, gold, the S&P 500 and the VIX across the top, the morning brief on Hormuz shipping and the widest gaps with prediction markets, and the start of the officials' claims scorecard. — The home page: live prices, the morning brief, and the claims scorecard.

Ask checkable questions.Yes or no, with a deadline and written rules for what counts. The model drafts short-term questions each week; an editor approves every one.
Read the news, with receipts.Every morning the model searches wire services, regional outlets and each side’s own media. A source is kept only if its exact link came back from the search.
Forecast every question.A probability for each question, with the reasons in plain words and the articles it relied on.
Check against the markets.Where Polymarket prices the same question, its odds sit beside ours, and the biggest gaps are listed on the home page.
Score it in public.Every question is resolved with a source and scored. Good results and bad ones go on the same track record.

Every number on the record.

Linked sources: An article is stored only if its link came back from a real search. Reference sites are excluded, so evidence is always reporting.
Written rules: Every question states what counts as YES and which sources settle it, before anyone forecasts it.
Scored: Brier scores for every resolved question, averaged over every day it was open, with a calibration chart.
Market check: Head to head with Polymarket on the questions both price.
Same rules: Officials on every side are judged by the same standard. Anonymous sourcing is never scored.

Live right now.

The Conflict Ledger · Live

Where the ledger and the market disagree most today.

The number updates every morning. Open the ledger to see the reasons, the sources and every other question.

Open the Conflict Ledger

Biggest gap with the market today: Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a general ceasefire by 31 March 2027?
Ledger: 8%
Polymarket: 31.5%
Open questions: 33
On the record: 41 officials’ claims judged

Inside the ledger.

The Iran page of the Conflict Ledger: the day's brief on Hormuz shipping and US strike risk, and five readings from 0 to 100 for fighting intensity, escalation risk, diplomacy, outside powers and economic disruption.

Each conflict

A daily brief, the open questions with their history, five readings, and every source with its date and a link.

The war room

Drag a reading or switch on a scenario, and watch every forecast respond, using the model’s own sensitivity estimates.

Brent crude over the past 12 months with dots for events in each conflict: near 60 dollars in the winter, a jump after the 28 February strikes on Iran to 118 dollars on 31 March, a sharp drop after the 7 April ceasefire, and back above 100 dollars by October.

How wars move markets

Prices every 15 minutes, events matched to the move in Brent, and weekly price calls scored automatically.

Three more ways in.

Live

The claims ledger

Officials’ checkable claims, from Washington to Moscow to Khartoum, recorded with their source and a check date, then judged against the record with the evidence linked. Every speaker gets a scorecard.

claim → check date
verdict → evidence link

Live

The morning brief

One email each morning across every conflict: the biggest moves, where the ledger disagrees with the markets, and which claims were judged. Alerts when a forecast moves 10 points or more.

7:15 am Eastern
free while the track record builds

Live

What if

Describe a development in your own words, such as a ceasefire, a strike or a deal, and the model estimates how each open question would move. It never changes the ledger.

your scenario → every question
3 tries a day

Covers: Iran, Russia and Ukraine, Israel with Gaza and Lebanon, the Taiwan Strait, and Sudan.
Updated: News and forecasts every morning; prices every 15 minutes.
First results: The first short-term questions resolve between 7 and 14 November 2026.
Runs on: Our own stack, built and run by OptimaTech Labs. Forecasts are model estimates, not advice.

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